“Identifying a fad vs a trend is essential” WGSN on TikTok-based beauty NPD
As TikTok continues to drive beauty trends, the social media app is increasingly hard to ignore when it comes to cosmetics NPD. However, it can also be somewhat of a ‘rabbit hole’ for beauty and personal care brands, due to the rapidly changing consumer needs that are generated by these viral fads.
CEO at trend forecasting company WGSN’s CEO, Carla Buzasi, highlighted that in the increasingly saturated beauty industry, brands can’t afford to make costly NPD errors based on what is currently trending that week.
“In the hyper competitive beauty market, identifying a fad vs a trend is essential,” she said.
Meanwhile, WGSN’s brand & content marketing manager Mirela Dufrayer also flagged up all of the the sustainability issues that come with having a ‘fast-beauty’ attitude to NPD and the potential creation of excess inventory.
“Knowing which trend to invest in and when means brands can reduce their carbon footprint and develop products with longevity,” she said.
In response to this growing industry issue, WGSN has just launched a TikTok analytics tool that aims to give beauty brands a forecast of the “trends to invest in and the ones to ignore.”
According to the forecasting company, beauty trends “don’t just spring from nowhere - and they aren’t as ‘fast’ as people assume.”
The proprietary tech mixes data analytics, expert insight, and the company’s signature STEPIC model to ensure cosmetics brands to only flag up the key trends.
It works by analysing the health, strength, and stability of a TikTok trend in the context of macro forecasts to predict the lifespan of a trend and therefore anticipate what will come next, which it says can help brands avoid taking a riskier “short-term reactive approach.”
Mob Wife & Broccoli Freckles
According to WGSN’s beauty director, Clare Varga, there is an increased amount of confusion between what’s trending and an actual trend.
“The pace and sheer amount of trends on TikTok can be overwhelming and this often leads brands to confuse something that is ‘trending’ for a ‘trend’,” she explained.
“Because WGSN forecasts trends rather than track them, and can contextualise them within macro trends, we’re able to distinguish between the two and cut out the noise and identify the trends that matter.”
Varga flagged up the recent popularity of the #MobWife aesthetic as an example of this.
“The mob wife look is trending but is part of a broader trend towards anti-perfectionist and anti-clean girl narratives characterised by glamorous statement makeup,” she said.
“We called this: ‘Messy beauty’ or ‘hangover beauty’ and it was identified as a Top Trend for 2024.”
"Even seemingly superficial trends like #BroccoliFreckles have underlying drivers,” she continued.
“In 2022, we predicted that faux freckles would be trending as a result of changing body-positive beauty narratives and consumers' increasing focus on sun protection due to climate change.”
