The research indicates that in every one of the five categories it analyzed – skin care, hair care, color cosmetics, fragrance, bath and body - there are key trends that are helping to buoy a largely stagnant picture.
In the $10.1bn US skin care market, market growth came in at 2 percent in 2010, however key drivers proved to be facial anti-aging products, which grew at 5.3 percent, together with premium facial anti-aging products, which grew at 13.0 percent.
Styling looks good for hair care
The overall picture in the hair care market looks a little bit, with the category in the US growing by 3 percent in 2010. Demeter researchers predict that styling agents, salon hair care and hair extensions are expected to boost the overall figures to 2015.
Of the five categories it was color cosmetics that performed the best in 2010, growing by 3.8 percent to reach an estimated value of $9.4bn, a good rebound following a 2 year decline.
Marked out for outstanding performance came the nail products category, which grew at a value of 12 percent last year, together with the prestige lip segment, which increased by 7.4 percent and by 7.0 in the period from January to April 2011.
Premium fragrances lead the way
US fragrances was the second worst performing of all the segments in 2010, with sales growing by 1.7 percent – a figure that was pronounced by a 3.1 percent rise in the premium category and a 3.8 percent decline in the mass market category.
According to Demeter, the future does not look good for the segment either, with sales forecast to decline by 0.5 percent CAGR up to the year 2015.
The worst performing segment was bath and shower, which actually saw sales decline by 2.0 percent in 2010, a big reverse after sales had grown by 3.5 percent in 2009. The only significant exception to this decline last year was the body wash and shower gel category, which saw sales increase by 7.5 percent.
In 2010 sales rebounded slightly
In 2010 US consumer spend on beauty products recovered slowly after the losses of 2009, posting a total value of $59.7bn, a figure that is predicted to rise slowly to $62.0bn by the end of 2015.
This suggests a CAGR of 0.7 percent per year to 2015, a figure that is significantly down on the period 2005 – 2010 when the CAGR was 1.07 percent, which includes the year 2009, when the industry reported falling sales in the US across the board.
The Demeter forecast suggests there are plenty of challenges that lie ahead in the next few years for the US cosmetics industry, and perhaps one of the most difficult times may prove to be the second half of 2011.