While the overall movement is downward Mintel expects some market segments to come out of the recession unscathed.
Product categories to benefit
Mintel even expects make-up sales to grow faster as the economy slips. It has increased its forecast for the next five years to 10 percent from 7 percent eight months ago.
Joan Holleran, director of research at Mintel, said: “Many women have a deep emotional tie to their appearance, so cosmetics are a non-negotiable.
“These women may trade down on other purchases or forgo expensive vacations, but they will still treat themselves to small, feel-good luxuries like make-up and beauty products.”
Other bright spots in the beauty industry include anti-aging and sun care. Even though predicted growth is not as strong as it once was, both these segments are expects to enjoy healthy growth rates in the coming years.
Sales of anti-aging skin care products are tipped to increase 20 percent over the next five years while sun care sales, supported by increased skin cancer awareness, are expected to rise 36 percent.
While these growth rates look healthy, they are a noticeable decline on previous estimates of 44 percent and 41 percent respectively.
Categories at risk in recession
Furthermore, other segments of the industry are not expected to fare so well. Anything that is not right on trend or deemed to be essential is at risk.
“Shoppers are trading down to save money on purchases they don’t deem necessary. So everything beyond deodorant, shampoo and razors is at risk,” said Joan Holleran. “Personal care companies need to focus on value, feel-good benefits and new product innovation to keep shoppers interested.”
Because the recession is changing the financial landscape of the cosmetics industry so dramatically Mintel has decided to adjust all its market forecasts from its Oxygen reports in 2007 and 2008.
Following the unprecedented re-forecasting, new market size predictions will be visible alongside the original estimates.